The
monsoon season may be over for the year, but it has left behind a feel-good
factor for the economy. The South-West monsoon of ’03 was marked by
near-normal rainfall over the country, distributed equitably over both
space and time. This has resulted in raising water levels in major reservoirs
across the country and ensured a good agricultural output. Inflation
trends have shown an overall decline over the period, which is partly
attributed to falling primary articles inflation. Food articles inflation,
a component of primary articles inflation, has shown the lowest rates
in the season.
Rainfall
trends over the season: For the country as a whole, the total rainfall
from June 1 to September 30, ’03 was 102% of its Long Period Average
(LPA). This is the second highest amount of rainfall received by the
country in the last ten years, the highest being in 1994, when it was
110% of LPA. Region-wise, north-west experienced highest rainfall at
102% of LPA, peninsular India was second, followed by north-east India
at 99% of LPA.
In
terms of meteorological sub-divisions, good monsoon gets reflected in
the fact that 33 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions received normal
to excess rainfall. Of these, 7 sub-divisions registered excess rainfall,
26 had normal rainfall, and only 3 sub-divisions received deficient
rainfall. South Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala received deficient
rainfall, while Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Chhattisgarh and
parts of Uttar Pradesh witnessed excess rains.
Inflation
trends: Inflation rates based on Wholesale Production Index (WPI) have
shown a continuous fall from the beginning of the current fiscal. Monthly
inflation was at 6.7% in April, which reduced to approximately 4% in
August. Primary inflation came down from 7% at the start of the fiscal
to about 3% at the end of August. This is primarily due to declining
food articles inflation, wh- ich has even recorded negative growth for
six weeks over the monsoon. However, there are signs of a pick-up in
inflation rates.
Reservoir
status: Live storage of 71 important reservoirs, with a Full Reservoir
Level of 131.3bn cubic meters for the season is about 79% of total reservoir
capacity. The present total water storage is 113% of last year’s level
and 81% of the last 10 years’ average.
